Introduction to Clinical Trials
Introduction to Clinical Trials
Issues in Analysis of Randomized Clinical Trials
Sources of Bias
1. Patient selection
2. Treatment assignment
3. Patient Evaluation
4. Data Analysis
Minimize Bias
1. Randomized Controls
2. Double blind (masked)
3. Analyze what is randomized
What Data Should Be Analyzed?
* Basic Intention-to-Treat (ITT) Procedure
o Analyze what is randomized!
* Randomized control trial “gold” standard
o Beware of lookalikes
* Definitions
Exclusions
o Screened but not randomized
o Affects generalizability
o Validity OK
Withdrawals from Analysis
o Randomized, but not included in data analysis
o Possible to introduce bias!
Patient Closeout
* ICH E9 Glossary
o “Intention-to-treat principle - …It has the consequence that subjects allocated to a treatment group should be followed up, assessed, and analyzed as members of that group irrespective of their compliance with the planned course of treatment.”
Patient Withdrawn in Analysis
* Common Practice - 1980s
o Over 3 years, 37/109 trials in New England Journal of Medicine
* Typical Reasons Given
a. Patient ineligible (in retrospect)
b. Noncompliance
c. Competing events
d. Missing data
I. Patient Withdrawn in Analysis
A. Patient INELIGIBLE
o After randomization, discover some patients did not in fact meet entry criteria
o Concern ineligible patients may dilute treatment effect
o Temptation to withdraw ineligibles
o Withdrawl of ineligible patients, post hoc, may introduce bias
Betablocker Heart Attack Trial
* 3837 post MI patients randomized
* 341 patients found by Central Review to be ineligible
* Results
Anturane Reinfarction Trial (1980) NEJM
* Randomized, double blind, placebo controlled
Anturane Reinfarction Trial (1980)
* 1629 patients randomized
o 1631 entered, but two patients randomized twice
o Need to delete 03013, 17008
o Use first randomization!
* Declared post hoc 71 “ineligible” patients
Analyzable Deaths - Within 7 days of being off drug
1980 Anturane Mortality Results
Total Mortality
Anturane Reinfarction Trial (1980)
Total Mortality
Anturane Sudden Death (SD)
for Total Follow-up
Anturane Analysis
Acceptable Policies For Ineligible Subjects
1. Delay randomization, confirm eligibility and allow no withdrawals (e.g. AMIS) (Chronic Studies)
2. Accept ineligibles, allow no withdrawals
(e.g. BHAT, MILIS) (Acute Studies)
3. Allow withdrawals if:
a. Procedures defined in advance
b. Decision made early (before event)
c. Decision independent and blinded
d. Use baseline covariates only (two subgroups)
e. Analysis done with and without
B. WITHDRAWL FOR NON-COMPLIANCE
References: Sackett & Gent (1979) NEJM, p. 1410
Coronary Drug Project (1980) NEJM, p. 1038
* Two Types of Trials
1. Management
- "Intent to Treat" Principle
- Compare all subjects, regardless of compliance
2. Explanatory
- Estimate optimum effect, understand mechanism
- Analyze subjects who fully comply